Today I attended a class and tour on the manufacturing of the curcuit boards we are trying to estimate the cycle time and the touch time needed to produce. A couple things that came up during the tour illustrated as to why we have such an inconsistency on cycle time. The inventory for the boards can be held up when materials are not available - and this happens daily according to the guide. The manufacturing end is trying to predict how much demand there will be for each inventory item, but they are not always accurate.
The biggest problem with the inventory issue is that if they need to order new material it can take 2 to 6 weeks to receive it. Basically, Rockwell Collins is at the mercy of the supplier.
Ryan and I are continuing to look for better prediction methods on cycle time and touch time. I have made some progress using the logarithm of the number of parts multiplied by the number of board layers, but it is not great. More work ahead.
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